esta online visa: February 2019

BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States is missing out on a global boom for tourism, hurt by a so-called Trump slump and currency exchange rates, travel industry experts said at a gathering in Berlin this week.

While U.S. President Donald Trump maintains that the travel ban blocking visitors from nations including Iran, Libya and Syria is needed to protect the United States from Islamic militants, the bans have raised concerns over America’s image as a welcoming country, with data showing a decline in tourist numbers last year.

International arrivals to the United States were down 4 percent in the first three quarters of 2017, Trump’s first year in office, according to the most recent data available from the United States.

By comparison, international tourism arrivals worldwide in 2017 were up 7 percent, representing the strongest result in seven years, figures from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) show.

“Politics is not helping us,” said Tilo Krause-Duenow, owner of German tour operator CANUSA, which specializes in trips to North America.

“The potential for the U.S. could be much bigger. Prices have come down due to the currency weakening and we should have seen a much bigger increase in demand,” he told Reuters at the ITB travel fair in Berlin.

German market researcher Gfk says that bookings from Germany to the United States are down 20 percent for the 2018 summer season, though it said this could be down to factors such as last year’s hurricane season and foreign exchange rates as well as the Trump effect.

Flight bookings to the United States fell 2 percent in 2017 and were flat in the first two months of 2018, a report by travel analysis company ForwardKeys showed this week. The report cited a weaker British pound, which makes it more expensive for Britons to travel abroad, and Trump’s travel ban.

America’s hopes of improving its reputation as a foreigner-friendly destination look to have been dented further this week, with Trump’s imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on Thursday raising fears of an international trade war.

New York had initially predicted a decline in international visitors by 300,000 for 2017 after Trump took office but now expects a smaller decline of about 100,000 to roughly 12.6 million.

“We’re still concerned because it takes the spending power of four domestic travelers to equal the spending power of one international traveler,” said Christopher Heywood, spokesman for New York City’s official tourism organization NYC & Company.

One area of optimism is ForwardKeys data showing that international forward bookings to the United States from within the Americas over the next six months are up 7 percent, but bookings from elsewhere have crept up by only 0.5 percent.

Some travel operators, however, say the concerns are overblown.

Arnaud Devanlay, of Evaneos, a website that offers tailor-made tours, said people had been concerned in the early part of last year but then decided to travel anyway.

“They’re visiting a country, not a government,” he said.

Delta Air Lines’ (DAL.N) sales director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, meanwhile, says that recent weakness in the dollar will help to lift demand.

“People want to go where they get the most for their money, where they feel safe and there’s exciting things to see,” Delta’s Bob Hannah said.

“And Trump’s not going to stop that.”

Source

WASHINGTON – A branch of the Commerce Department has suspended publication of figures about foreign tourism because of "technical issues with a significant number of records" the agency receives from Customs and Border Protection.

The figures tracking the number of foreign visitors are key to the tourism industry making decisions about marketing and employment. Travel and tourism gave the U.S. an $83.9 billion trade surplus in 2016, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

But uncertainty about the number of foreign tourists has roiled the industry for months.

Depending on which agency is counting, the number of foreign arrivals has either been rising – according to CBP – or falling during the last two years – according to the Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office.

The tourism office said Friday it would suspend data reports after March 7 "until the records are properly identified, categorized and counted."

"The National Travel and Tourism Office is committed to providing accurate statistics on international travelers to the United States as defined by international standards for the travel and tourism sector," said Isabel Hill, the office director.

Commerce: International tourism to U.S. dips by 700,000

Part of the difference is in definitions. CBP counts everyone who arrives during fiscal years that start Oct. 1.

The tourism office focuses on travelers staying at least one night on visas or from visa-waiver countries such as most of Europe who fill out an I-94 form upon arrival. Visa holders could be visiting for either business or pleasure, as treaty traders or investors, or as students or their families. But the tourism figures don't include legal permanent residents of the U.S.

Even accounting for different definitions and time frames, the numbers haven't matched up. CBP reported in February that 124.2 million people arrived at airports in the last fiscal year, marking a 4% rise in non-citizens. Arrivals have grown each of the last eight years, according to CBP.

But the tourism office has charted a decline in overseas visitors during a similar time frame. The number of non-resident arrivals to the U.S. dropped 2.4% during 2016 and another 3.8% last year through September, according to the latest figures available from the tourism office.

CBP Commissioner Kevin McAleenan voiced confidence in the rising numbers while releasing his agency’s annual report in February.

“Our data is pretty solid because we confirmed an arrival, either biometrically or with a passport or both,” McAleenan told USA TODAY. “We had increases month over month from the previous fiscal year every single month of the year. The second half of the year was higher than the first half.”

The tourism office announced Friday that it had discovered a "meaningful and increasing number" of foreign nationals traveling on visas who had been categorized as U.S. residents. If confirmed, the office’s review could likely increase the number of 2017 visitors.

"NTTO is working with CBP and the Department of Homeland Security to resolve these issues," Hill said.

Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, a Pennsylvania company that analyzes the federal numbers for industry clients, has been studying the discrepancies for months. International travel to the U.S. increased 2% last year, based on data from five sources other than the tourism office: CBP, the Advanced Passenger Information System created by CBP and three private organizations that track data from where travelers begin their trips, he said.

“What that implies is that the data that has been published by NTTO has been significantly undercounted,” Sacks told USA TODAY. “The reason for that is no fault of NTTO. It’s based on the flawed data records received from CBP.”

McAleenan said CBP had noticed the difference in the results, and will work with the Commerce Department to resolve questions about the data.

“There are different ways to slice and dice the data," McAleenan said. “We’re going to be working to align our data with Commerce for the next year’s report."

Defining whether tourism is up or down is important politically and financially, with the tourism industry raising alarms about losing billions of dollars from declining visitors during the last two years, based on tourism office figures. Overseas visitors spend an average $4,360 during average 18-night stays, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

During the last year, President Trump ordered a halt to arrivals from a half-dozen countries and tightened vetting for international arrivals, which led to concerns in the tourism industry about a slump in visitors.

The Pew Research Center found that among 10 countries surveyed, a favorable view of the U.S. increased in only one during the Trump administration: Russia. Visits from Mexico and the Middle East each declined last year, Sacks said.

An expanding global economy, a weaker dollar and destination marketing by Brand USA and local tourism boards helped attract more visitors to the U.S. last year, Sacks said. But cross-border travel increased 7% around the rest of world, compared to 2% in the U.S., he said.

“There’s a lot of good market fundamentals, but the U.S. lost market share,” Sacks said. “The concept of a ‘Trump slump’ in travel to the U.S. remains a concern as we observe these losses in market share as well as sharp declines in travel to the US from Mexico and the Middle East last year.”

The U.S. Travel Association praised the Commerce Department's efforts to getting the numbers right.

"With international inbound travel being such a critical component of the U.S. trade balance and jobs base, the stakes are very high to have an accurate picture of overseas visitors to our country," said Tori Barnes, the association's senior vice president for government relations.

Christopher Heywood, senior vice president for global communications at NYC & Company, a tourism and marketing group for the city, said his group relies on a variety of sources rather than the I-94 form that the tourism office relies upon.

For example, New York's analysis found that visitors from the United Kingdom are down, while China, Brazil and Australia appear to be up, Heywood said. But the Commerce figures suggest arrivals from all four countries were down last year through August.

"My understanding is that there are a variety of data sources that are used to track international visitor volume," Heywood said. "We don’t only rely on the I-94 form."

More about tourism figures and concerns about a 'Trump slump':

L.A., NYC buck Trump slump, report uptick in tourism

Trump's travel ban could cost $18B in U.S. tourism, analysis shows