WASHINGTON – A branch of the Commerce Department has suspended publication of figures about foreign tourism because of "technical issues with a significant number of records" the agency receives from Customs and Border Protection.
The figures tracking the number of foreign visitors are key to the tourism industry making decisions about marketing and employment. Travel and tourism gave the U.S. an $83.9 billion trade surplus in 2016, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
But uncertainty about the number of foreign tourists has roiled the industry for months.
Depending on which agency is counting, the number of foreign arrivals has either been rising – according to CBP – or falling during the last two years – according to the Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office.
The tourism office said Friday it would suspend data reports after March 7 "until the records are properly identified, categorized and counted."
"The National Travel and Tourism Office is committed to providing accurate statistics on international travelers to the United States as defined by international standards for the travel and tourism sector," said Isabel Hill, the office director.
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Part of the difference is in definitions. CBP counts everyone who arrives during fiscal years that start Oct. 1.
The tourism office focuses on travelers staying at least one night on visas or from visa-waiver countries such as most of Europe who fill out an I-94 form upon arrival. Visa holders could be visiting for either business or pleasure, as treaty traders or investors, or as students or their families. But the tourism figures don't include legal permanent residents of the U.S.
Even accounting for different definitions and time frames, the numbers haven't matched up. CBP reported in February that 124.2 million people arrived at airports in the last fiscal year, marking a 4% rise in non-citizens. Arrivals have grown each of the last eight years, according to CBP.
But the tourism office has charted a decline in overseas visitors during a similar time frame. The number of non-resident arrivals to the U.S. dropped 2.4% during 2016 and another 3.8% last year through September, according to the latest figures available from the tourism office.
CBP Commissioner Kevin McAleenan voiced confidence in the rising numbers while releasing his agency’s annual report in February.
“Our data is pretty solid because we confirmed an arrival, either biometrically or with a passport or both,” McAleenan told USA TODAY. “We had increases month over month from the previous fiscal year every single month of the year. The second half of the year was higher than the first half.”
The tourism office announced Friday that it had discovered a "meaningful and increasing number" of foreign nationals traveling on visas who had been categorized as U.S. residents. If confirmed, the office’s review could likely increase the number of 2017 visitors.
"NTTO is working with CBP and the Department of Homeland Security to resolve these issues," Hill said.
Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, a Pennsylvania company that analyzes the federal numbers for industry clients, has been studying the discrepancies for months. International travel to the U.S. increased 2% last year, based on data from five sources other than the tourism office: CBP, the Advanced Passenger Information System created by CBP and three private organizations that track data from where travelers begin their trips, he said.
“What that implies is that the data that has been published by NTTO has been significantly undercounted,” Sacks told USA TODAY. “The reason for that is no fault of NTTO. It’s based on the flawed data records received from CBP.”
McAleenan said CBP had noticed the difference in the results, and will work with the Commerce Department to resolve questions about the data.
“There are different ways to slice and dice the data," McAleenan said. “We’re going to be working to align our data with Commerce for the next year’s report."
Defining whether tourism is up or down is important politically and financially, with the tourism industry raising alarms about losing billions of dollars from declining visitors during the last two years, based on tourism office figures. Overseas visitors spend an average $4,360 during average 18-night stays, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
During the last year, President Trump ordered a halt to arrivals from a half-dozen countries and tightened vetting for international arrivals, which led to concerns in the tourism industry about a slump in visitors.
The Pew Research Center found that among 10 countries surveyed, a favorable view of the U.S. increased in only one during the Trump administration: Russia. Visits from Mexico and the Middle East each declined last year, Sacks said.
An expanding global economy, a weaker dollar and destination marketing by Brand USA and local tourism boards helped attract more visitors to the U.S. last year, Sacks said. But cross-border travel increased 7% around the rest of world, compared to 2% in the U.S., he said.
“There’s a lot of good market fundamentals, but the U.S. lost market share,” Sacks said. “The concept of a ‘Trump slump’ in travel to the U.S. remains a concern as we observe these losses in market share as well as sharp declines in travel to the US from Mexico and the Middle East last year.”
The U.S. Travel Association praised the Commerce Department's efforts to getting the numbers right.
"With international inbound travel being such a critical component of the U.S. trade balance and jobs base, the stakes are very high to have an accurate picture of overseas visitors to our country," said Tori Barnes, the association's senior vice president for government relations.
Christopher Heywood, senior vice president for global communications at NYC & Company, a tourism and marketing group for the city, said his group relies on a variety of sources rather than the I-94 form that the tourism office relies upon.
For example, New York's analysis found that visitors from the United Kingdom are down, while China, Brazil and Australia appear to be up, Heywood said. But the Commerce figures suggest arrivals from all four countries were down last year through August.
"My understanding is that there are a variety of data sources that are used to track international visitor volume," Heywood said. "We don’t only rely on the I-94 form."
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