Are more or fewer tourists coming to the U.S.? Depends which federal agency you ask

WASHINGTON – A branch of the Commerce Department has suspended publication of figures about foreign tourism because of "technical issues with a significant number of records" the agency receives from Customs and Border Protection.

The figures tracking the number of foreign visitors are key to the tourism industry making decisions about marketing and employment. Travel and tourism gave the U.S. an $83.9 billion trade surplus in 2016, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

But uncertainty about the number of foreign tourists has roiled the industry for months.

Depending on which agency is counting, the number of foreign arrivals has either been rising – according to CBP – or falling during the last two years – according to the Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office.

The tourism office said Friday it would suspend data reports after March 7 "until the records are properly identified, categorized and counted."

"The National Travel and Tourism Office is committed to providing accurate statistics on international travelers to the United States as defined by international standards for the travel and tourism sector," said Isabel Hill, the office director.

Commerce: International tourism to U.S. dips by 700,000

Part of the difference is in definitions. CBP counts everyone who arrives during fiscal years that start Oct. 1.

The tourism office focuses on travelers staying at least one night on visas or from visa-waiver countries such as most of Europe who fill out an I-94 form upon arrival. Visa holders could be visiting for either business or pleasure, as treaty traders or investors, or as students or their families. But the tourism figures don't include legal permanent residents of the U.S.

Even accounting for different definitions and time frames, the numbers haven't matched up. CBP reported in February that 124.2 million people arrived at airports in the last fiscal year, marking a 4% rise in non-citizens. Arrivals have grown each of the last eight years, according to CBP.

But the tourism office has charted a decline in overseas visitors during a similar time frame. The number of non-resident arrivals to the U.S. dropped 2.4% during 2016 and another 3.8% last year through September, according to the latest figures available from the tourism office.

CBP Commissioner Kevin McAleenan voiced confidence in the rising numbers while releasing his agency’s annual report in February.

“Our data is pretty solid because we confirmed an arrival, either biometrically or with a passport or both,” McAleenan told USA TODAY. “We had increases month over month from the previous fiscal year every single month of the year. The second half of the year was higher than the first half.”

The tourism office announced Friday that it had discovered a "meaningful and increasing number" of foreign nationals traveling on visas who had been categorized as U.S. residents. If confirmed, the office’s review could likely increase the number of 2017 visitors.

"NTTO is working with CBP and the Department of Homeland Security to resolve these issues," Hill said.

Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, a Pennsylvania company that analyzes the federal numbers for industry clients, has been studying the discrepancies for months. International travel to the U.S. increased 2% last year, based on data from five sources other than the tourism office: CBP, the Advanced Passenger Information System created by CBP and three private organizations that track data from where travelers begin their trips, he said.

“What that implies is that the data that has been published by NTTO has been significantly undercounted,” Sacks told USA TODAY. “The reason for that is no fault of NTTO. It’s based on the flawed data records received from CBP.”

McAleenan said CBP had noticed the difference in the results, and will work with the Commerce Department to resolve questions about the data.

“There are different ways to slice and dice the data," McAleenan said. “We’re going to be working to align our data with Commerce for the next year’s report."

Defining whether tourism is up or down is important politically and financially, with the tourism industry raising alarms about losing billions of dollars from declining visitors during the last two years, based on tourism office figures. Overseas visitors spend an average $4,360 during average 18-night stays, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

During the last year, President Trump ordered a halt to arrivals from a half-dozen countries and tightened vetting for international arrivals, which led to concerns in the tourism industry about a slump in visitors.

The Pew Research Center found that among 10 countries surveyed, a favorable view of the U.S. increased in only one during the Trump administration: Russia. Visits from Mexico and the Middle East each declined last year, Sacks said.

An expanding global economy, a weaker dollar and destination marketing by Brand USA and local tourism boards helped attract more visitors to the U.S. last year, Sacks said. But cross-border travel increased 7% around the rest of world, compared to 2% in the U.S., he said.

“There’s a lot of good market fundamentals, but the U.S. lost market share,” Sacks said. “The concept of a ‘Trump slump’ in travel to the U.S. remains a concern as we observe these losses in market share as well as sharp declines in travel to the US from Mexico and the Middle East last year.”

The U.S. Travel Association praised the Commerce Department's efforts to getting the numbers right.

"With international inbound travel being such a critical component of the U.S. trade balance and jobs base, the stakes are very high to have an accurate picture of overseas visitors to our country," said Tori Barnes, the association's senior vice president for government relations.

Christopher Heywood, senior vice president for global communications at NYC & Company, a tourism and marketing group for the city, said his group relies on a variety of sources rather than the I-94 form that the tourism office relies upon.

For example, New York's analysis found that visitors from the United Kingdom are down, while China, Brazil and Australia appear to be up, Heywood said. But the Commerce figures suggest arrivals from all four countries were down last year through August.

"My understanding is that there are a variety of data sources that are used to track international visitor volume," Heywood said. "We don’t only rely on the I-94 form."

More about tourism figures and concerns about a 'Trump slump':

L.A., NYC buck Trump slump, report uptick in tourism

Trump's travel ban could cost $18B in U.S. tourism, analysis shows

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US tourists to India increased by over 6%, says Tourism Ministry

Tourist footfalls from the US to India in 2017 has increased by over six percent as compared to previous year, government said, countering an American report that claimed there was a decline during the period.

The Ministry of Tourism in a statement said foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) from the United States has never declined since 2010.

"FTAs in India from the USA during the year 2017 have registered a positive growth of 6.17 percent over the year 2016," the statement said.

A report of National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) had recently said the outbound tourists from the USA to India have declined by 7 percent in the year 2017 as compared to 2016, it said.

According to the said report released by NTTO, traveller volume is based on the US Department of Homeland Security Advanced Passenger Information System wherein all airlines are required to electronically submit passenger data on flights arriving into and departing from the United States.

The ministry said that it was obvious that the source of data for the report is only airlines reporting. In the cases where direct flight between the USA and India is not operating, it is not known whether the final destination or the transit destination is reported as India by the passengers.

Moreover, departures at international check posts other than airports are not captured in the report. Therefore, it may not contain the complete information on the outbound departures from the USA, it said.

On the other hand, the Bureau of Immigration of India (BoI) compiles the data of (FTA) from the records of scanned passport of each person arriving at all the international check posts in India, which include airports, sea ports and the land check posts.

The FTAs from USA in India during January - August this year was 9,26,192, 8.8 percent higher than the corresponding numbers during the same period last year.

NTTO in its recent report had said that the US tourist arrivals in India had dipped for the first time in eight years.

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Tourism entrepreneurs to pitch ideas at Governor’s Conference on Tourism

Tourism partners from across the state will be in Hot Springs Feb. 24-26 for the 45th Arkansas Governor’s Conference on Tourism. The annual gathering of Arkansas’ tourism industry offers sessions on topics such as Google’s latest trends, marketing to a diverse audience and 21st century visitor engagement.

New to the conference this year is the inaugural ArkTank startup pitch competition. The winner will walk away with a cash prize of $5,000 and guaranteed mentorship from Arkansas Tourism and Innovate Arkansas, which helps technology entrepreneurs turn startup companies into viable commercial enterprises.

Arkansas Tourism partnered with Innovate Arkansas for the startup competition that asked entrepreneurs to pitch ideas of viable business endeavors that relate to tourism. There were 21 entries in the competition, said Joy Barlogie, tourism development manager for the Arkansas Department of Parks and Tourism.

“We are looking for the ideas and energy that entrepreneurs bring to everything they do. To apply those ideas for continued tourism business growth in our state is a great opportunity,” Arkansas Tourism Director Jim Dailey said when the contest was announced. “Ark Tank will be an exciting addition to our annual conference, and we can’t wait to see the ideas that will be presented.”

Contest committee members called each of the 21 applicants to discuss their ideas and determine if they would be fiscally viable, Barlogie said. Those applicants were narrowed to a list of nine. Those nine were then interviewed through video calls so committee members could see if the applicants would be able to sell their products, she said.

The list was eventually narrowed to four, who will pitch their ideas in a 12-minute presentation Tuesday (Feb. 26) at the Governor’s Conference. Those pitches will include a seven minute presentation and five minutes for questions and answers.

“We had some really great candidates. It was really hard to narrow it to four,” Barlogie said. “We had everything from fishing pole holders for the garage to promote fishing throughout Arkansas to a concierge service for things to do, hotels and attractions throughout the state.”

The competition is expected to become an annual event, Barlogie said.

“We had a great response. We definitely expect to do it again next year,” she said. “The 2020 conference will be in Fort Smith and the 2021 in Fayetteville. Both of these are areas attracting lots of entrepreneurs. We don’t see why the Governor’s Conference can’t be in on that as well.”

Also new at this year’s conference is a unique collaborative networking space called “Share Space,” located in Room 206 of the convention center. Attendees have the opportunity for one-on-one conversations with conference speakers and other industry professionals to collaborate, brainstorm and learn.

The conference will culminate with the presentation of the 2019 Henry Awards and an address by Gov. Asa Hutchinson. The Arkansas Governor’s Conference on Tourism was first held in 1975 at Dogpatch, U.S.A.

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e-Visa now more tourist friendly with these changes!

e-Tourist Visa which was introduced in September 2014 with 46 countries has now been made applicable for 166 countries. The government recently made a series of amendments in the e-visa regime.

New Delhi: The e-Tourist Visa which was introduced in September 2014 with 46 countries has now been made applicable for 166 countries. Recently, the government has made a series of amendments in the e-visa regime, making it more tourist friendly. It may be noted that The Ministry of Tourism has been working very closely with the Ministry of Home Affairs for easing of the Visa Regime in the country over a period of time.

These are the modifications made by the government in the e-Visa regime

1. Duration of stay in India of e-Tourist and e-Business Visas is maximum up to 1 Year with multiple entries subject to the stay stipulations.

2. The existing restriction of allowing foreigner for a maximum of three times has also been removed.

Changes in the e-Tourist Visa:

1. On e-Tourist Visa continuous stay during each visit shall not exceed 90 days in case of nationals of all countries who are eligible for grant of e-visa except nationals of USA, UK, Canada and Japan.

2. In case of nationals of the USA, UK, Canada and Japan continuous stay during each visit shall not exceed 180 days.

3. In all cases, no registration will be required.

Changes in e-Business Visa:

1. Continuous stay during each visit shall not exceed 180 days in case of nationals of all countries who are eligible for grant of e-visa

2. No registration will be required if the stay is for a period of less than 180 days.

Other changes:

1. e-Visa is valid for entry through 2 (two) more designated Airports (Bhubaneswar and Port Blair) raising the total number of such airports to 28.

2. Attending destination wedding under normal e-Tourist visa or Tourist visa- No separate category of Destination Wedding Visa.

3. Foreign nationals who fall sick during their stay in India can now avail medical treatment without converting their visa into Medical Visa. This would take care of sudden medical emergencies.

4. Visa-on-Arrival facility extended to the nationals of the Republic of Korea.

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Financial questions hound two of Formula One's three races in North America

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Two of Formula One's three races in North America are facing financial issues that are raising concern about their future.

Organizers of the U.S. Grand Prix won't be reimbursed at least $20 million from the state of Texas for the 2018 race after missing a paperwork deadline set by law. And new questions lurk about the future of the Mexican Grand Prix after the country's new president suggested the government may not spend on the race like it has the last four years.

Both races have been popular with drivers and fans, and enjoy key dates on the F1 calendar. Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton clinched season championships in Texas in 2015 and in Mexico City in 2017 and 2018.

Officials in Formula One and at the Circuit of the Americas, host of the U.S. Grand Prix, did not immediately respond to requests for comment Wednesday.

Both races get huge government financial support.

The U.S. Grand Prix has reaped about $150 million since 2012 from Texas' Major Events Reimbursement Program, which is controlled by Gov. Greg Abbott's office. That money has been considered critical to paying F1's annual rights fee to host the race. In 2015, track President Bobby Epstein said a $5 million reduction that year could have jeopardized the future of the race, but it has survived.

Officials at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin have known for months the 2018 money wasn't coming. Track officials were informed in an Oct. 8 letter — 11 days before the U.S. Grand Prix — that race organizers would not get money from the fund because they had missed a state-mandated deadline to submit an anti-human trafficking plan 30 days before the event. That plan wasn't submitted until Oct. 3 and a previous letter of temporary approval was rescinded.

Two months later, track President Bobby Epstein contributed $50,000 to Gov. Greg Abbott, who had just won re-election.

The state requires major events that apply to the fund to have anti-human trafficking plans in part to help combat spikes in prostitution. The missed deadline and lost money were first reported Wednesday by the Austin American-Statesman . Abbott's office provided a copy of the letter to the AP.

Epstein didn't immediately respond to messages seeking comment. Abbott spokesman John Wittman said the state had no choice but to withhold the money.

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The Trump Slump Hits U.S. Tourism

Summertime, but where are the foreign tourists?

Ever since our forty-fifth president was elected, tourism to the United States from foreign countries has steadily dropped—in the face of a world-wide boom in travel—and the authoritative U.S. Travel Association has just provided me with figures projecting a further drop in 2018, from a share of worldwide tourism of 12.0 percent in 2017 to 11.7 percent this year. And this is after a drop in Trump’s first year in office from 12.9 percent. Though the numbers and differentials look small in percentages, they are large in terms of dollars not spent here by foreign tourists and they have serious negative implications for jobs not created.

What has caused this series of drops in foreign tourism since Donald Trump was sworn in as president? Trump’s rhetoric and new policies and rules and regulations regarding travel have combined to blot America’s long-standing image as a welcoming nation.

And of course his travel ban, a barely disguised version of the total ban on Muslims being allowed into this country he announced during his presidential campaign, inflamed worldwide opinion and in practical terms it barred visits by citizens of seven entire countries in the name of preventing terrorist attacks (though none have come from the countries the ban singled out).

The administration’s treatment of people attempting to flee here from violence-wracked Central American countries and Trump’s rhetoric about Mexico from the moment he entered the presidential race hasn’t encouraged Hispanics to come see our wondrous sights and enjoy our beautiful beaches. Trump’s withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord hasn’t helped, nor have his rows with the leaders of friendly nations, which began almost from when he took office. Neither has Trump’s launching of a trade war. New visa-vetting policies have also caused delays and denials that didn’t used to occur. The invasive new tightening of airport security has put off numerous travelers to this country.

Maybe all these changes have prevented would-be terrorists from entering the U.S., but they for sure have also discouraged or denied many visitors with benign intentions.

The drop in tourism in 2017 was precipitous, and its velocity can be mainly attributed to one factor, what’s come to be called in the tourism industry the Trump slump. Earlier this year, Reuters quoted the head of a German company that specializes in trips to the United States as saying, “Politics is not helping us.” He added that since the price of the dollar was falling at that time, “we should have seen a much bigger increase in demand.” The Pew Research Center Reserve found earlier this year that a survey of ten nations showed that a favorable opinion of the US occurred in only one country: Russia. The inescapable fact is that Trump’s presidency has coincided with an unprecedented drop in travel to the United States. The US’s share in worldwide travel increased steadily until 2015. While some attribute the recent drop in tourism to the U.S. to a strong dollar, in fact, the dollar was strong in 2015, when our tourism growth was at its apex, and it was strong in 2016. Yet when it declined in 2017, which should have helped tourism, foreign tourism to the U.S. dropped steeply that year. (After starting off weak earlier this year, the dollar’s been gaining in strength robustly, and the recent tightening of credit by the Federal Reserve will likely send the dollar even higher—which isn’t good for U.S. exports, which includes tourism.)

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